The "Golden Nine" market brought by the usual Christmas orders did not appear. In September, China's textile and apparel exports ushered in the unexpected decline in the case of the previous decline in the decline.
"cold winter" front
According to customs data, in September, China’s textile and apparel exports reached US$22.765 billion, down 15.4% year-on-year. The decline was 12.3 percentage points higher than that in August (exports fell 3.1% year-on-year), and expanded from September last year (exports fell 5.7% year-on-year). Nearly 10 percentage points. From January to September, the total export of textiles and clothing was US$18.654 billion, down 6.02% year-on-year. The decline was 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous eight months and nearly 3.6 percentage points higher than the first half.
The traditional peak season of the textile market is not prosperous, and the chill of the export market has made Hua Rui, the information and textile information manager of Huarui, feel that the industry winter has arrived in advance.
According to the monthly data breakdown, the year-on-year growth rate of textile and apparel exports has achieved a high positive growth rate in March, and has basically continued its downward trend since then. Only textile exports achieved positive growth again in August. At the same time, clothing exports have continued to decline since May this year, although the decline in September has increased, but the decline has not changed much.
In September, textile exports reached 7.72 billion US dollars, down 20.5% year-on-year. Compared with August (exports 10.246 billion US dollars, up 5.2% year-on-year growth), the growth rate increased by 25 percentage points; clothing exports reached 15.45 billion US dollars, down 12.6% year-on-year, compared with August (export US$17.686 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year, and the decline was 5 percentage points.
It can be seen that the year-on-year growth rate of textile and apparel exports expanded from the single digit decline in August to the double-digit decline in September, mainly due to the sharp decline in textile exports from positive growth in August to September.
Stop production and limit production
Why did textile exports in September turn around? Although the breakdown of data on specific products has not yet been announced, He Xiaosi pointed out in an interview with the International Business Daily that this is mainly due to the textile printing and dyeing of Zhejiang and other places before and after the G20 Hangzhou Summit. The company has limited production suspension for nearly half a month.
The export of textiles is mainly based on yarns, fabrics and finished products, of which fabrics account for about 50%. The fabric export landslide that occupies half of the country will undoubtedly directly affect the export trend of textiles.
In order to ensure the convening of the G20 Hangzhou Summit in early September, Hangzhou and surrounding areas have been suspended for nearly half a month (August 24 to September 6). The printing and dyeing volume in Zhejiang accounts for about 65% of the national production capacity, and the processing of grey fabrics is mostly after bleaching, dyeing and printing. During the printing and dyeing factory's suspension of production, the professional clothing market for cloth clothing in Zhejiang has also fallen into a state of closed goods.
According to this, He Xiaosi judged that the main factor leading to the shift of textile exports from positive growth in September should be the stagnation of fabric production caused by the large-scale stagnation of printing and dyeing production, which in turn affected the export of fabrics.
Of course, the continued impact of weak external demand, industrial transfer, and order dispersion has also restricted the export of textiles and clothing to varying degrees. This year, in the case of continued weak foreign trade demand, the Black Swan incident occurred frequently in the Philippines, Turkey and other places, and the Brexit has further deteriorated the foreign trade environment. At the same time, China's industries including textiles and garments are in a period of painful transformation. In the case of rising costs, compared with Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, the comparative advantages of China's textile and garment production have weakened and trade orders have been scattered. Under this situation, many enterprises in China have transferred some of their production capacity to Southeast Asia, which has also caused the diversion of related trade orders.
Negative growth
Compared with textile exports, this year's clothing export situation is almost bleak. Except for the second quarter's export data is basically flat, the rest of the time is negative growth. In this regard, He Xiaosi explained that compared with the more technology-intensive and capital-intensive features of the textile industry in recent years, the labor-intensive characteristics of the apparel industry have not changed much. The cost structure of subdivided related products can be seen that the raw material cost of textile (gauze) products accounts for 65%~70% of the total cost, and the raw material cost of apparel products accounts for nearly 50% to 60% of the total cost, and the added value is low. The competition for related products is also mainly reflected in the cost. Therefore, under the comparison of a series of advantages in raw materials, labor and policy in Southeast Asia, the comparative advantage of China's garment exports is becoming weaker.
The impact of the G20 Hangzhou Summit is phased, and its restrictions on China's textile and apparel exports will be eliminated with the resumption of production. “In the fourth quarter, the decline in China’s textile and apparel exports will be narrowed.†However, He Xiaosi also reminded that the World Internet Conference, which will be held in November, also arranged for the suspension of production in the surrounding areas when it was held last year. This year’s meeting is scheduled to be held in Wuzhen. At that time, it is more likely to stop production, and it will also have a negative impact on textile and garment exports.
He Xiaosi believes that this year's decline in China's textile and apparel exports is a foregone conclusion, "unless there will be counter-cyclical unconventional factors in the later period." According to this, China's textile and garment exports will have a continuous decline since the decline in the past 20 years.
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