In the near future, many places are formulating medium- and long-term development plans. Whether China's export-oriented development path will change in the post-crisis era has become one of the key issues.
In an eastern county-level city that we have studied recently, the local government is also very confused. If the local development rate in the past years is likely to become a city with a population of 1 million, where does the population come from? This involves the judgment of China's future regional economic structure, which in turn is related to whether China's export-oriented development path will continue. In this regard, our judgment is that China's export-oriented economic development path will not change in the medium and long term, which is partly due to China's demographic structure and partly due to the rigidity of domestic consumption. Although domestic demand may increase, consumption is still difficult to become the main driving force for economic growth in a short period of time, and the high growth of investment is not sustainable. This makes exports become the main driving force of economic growth after the crisis. The development of China's cities lags behind industrialization, which makes the transfer of labor a long-term continuous process, which guarantees that in the long run, China's low-cost and high-quality labor will remain a major competitive force.
With the deterioration of the financial crisis, insufficient demand has become a major constraint to China's economic growth, and export growth has played an important role in the growth of demand. From November 2008 to June this year, China’s exports have been growing negatively for eight consecutive months. When external demand is frustrated and investment is not sustainable, the voice of expanding domestic demand has risen. However, the reality has caused many exporting companies to fall into awkward situations. When the target market is turned from abroad to China, the company suddenly feels that the domestic market is far from doing well in the international market, and the domestic demand policy is only a short-term consideration. When we calm down and think about it, we find that the Chinese economy is a bit "difficult to turn around." The contradiction between domestic demand and external demand has emerged along with the rapid growth in the past. The improvement of domestic demand is a long-term process. China will still seek growth outside of domestic demand. This growth point can only be exported.
First, China still has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive products. China's urbanization process is seriously lagging behind the industrialization process. At present, there are about 1.3 to 150 million migrant workers who work outside the home. In addition to these people who need to formally convert to urban residents, there are still about 160 million laborers engaged in agricultural production in rural areas. About 100 million people work in township enterprises, private enterprises or individual industrial and commercial households, they also need to enter the urban industry and increase their productivity. Therefore, at least for some time to come, the labor costs of China's manufacturing industry will not rise significantly. At the same time, under the investment, the labor productivity of China's manufacturing industry continues to rise, and the situation of rising labor costs will be maintained, thus maintaining the cost advantage of China's manufacturing industry. Even if there is an increase in labor costs, it will only gradually bridge the gap between labor productivity and rising labor costs, and will not fundamentally change the low-cost and high-quality advantages of Chinese-made products.
Second, the theory of economics shows that the long-term sustained income, that is, the total income of a person's life, which affects consumption, will not change in the short term. China's social security system is imperfect. The government invests less in pensions and medical care. Individuals need to rely on savings to prevent unpredictable risks in the future. Therefore, domestic demand is unlikely to increase rapidly in the short term. Confucian thrift culture requires diligence and family, so it is difficult to increase consumption as a whole. All of the above illustrates a common phenomenon. At present, China’s GDP has a very low proportion of consumption, and consumption is just the most important part of the four components of GDP – consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. The characteristics of consumption itself are difficult to grow substantially in a short period of time, which means that China's economic growth is also difficult to rely mainly on consumption for some time to come.
Third, China's current income gap is large, which seriously restricts the growth of consumption. Another manifestation of the income gap is that the proportion of labor income in national income (referred to as “labor income shareâ€) continues to decline. Since the mid-1990s, the proportion of labor income has dropped significantly, especially since 2003, the decline has been even greater. At present, China's labor income accounts for only about 40%. From an international comparison point of view, it has fallen to the list of countries with relatively low labor income. According to international practice, part of the income of self-employed persons should be included in capital gains, and China calculated all self-employed income into labor income before 2004. Therefore, China’s labor income ratio is actually overestimated. The large income gap means that a large amount of wealth is concentrated in the hands of the rich, while the rich tend to have a lower propensity to consume. The poor have a higher propensity to consume, but lack of money, which results in a lower overall consumption.
This economic crisis has seriously affected China's foreign trade. However, in the first half of 2009, China's import and export situation, the advantages of labor-intensive goods are still outstanding, and the competitiveness of enterprises and the international market share are basically stable. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export of traditional labor-intensive products such as clothing and footwear has not decreased much, while the export of electromechanical and electrical products with a slightly lower labor content has shrunk significantly.
Every industrial power in the world, especially the emerging economies in East Asia, has an export-oriented development stage. In 2007, China’s foreign trade dependence has reached 66.3%, far exceeding the economic powers of the United States and Japan. Such high foreign trade dependence should indeed fall, but this only says that the share of exports in GDP should fall. Non-index. China needs to vigorously boost domestic demand. In particular, it needs to control the income gap, improve public services, and improve social security to make the people more consume. China also needs to let workers share more fruits of the continuous improvement of labor productivity, so as to gradually upgrade the industrial structure. However, these adjustments are not completed overnight. A good wish cannot replace the laws of the economy, or it may be punished. Fundamentally speaking, the comparative advantage brought about by China's demographic structure determines whether the future development of China's economy will be inseparable from export-oriented manufacturing. As long as this path does not change fundamentally, economic activities and population will move closer to the port. The trend of agglomeration in the eastern cities will not change fundamentally. The author therefore concludes that these laws should be used to guide the development of industries across China and the regional layout of the national economy.
Cupcake crown is anther specail desinged crown for pageants.
Cupcake Crowns, Birthday Crowns, Tolly Cupcake Crown
YiWu Home Of Crowns Co.,Ltd , http://www.crystal-crowns.com