From the current situation analysis, the world economy is expected to experience a slow recovery in 2010, and the overall environment facing China's foreign trade development tends to improve. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2010, with developed countries growing by 1.3% and emerging economies and developing countries by 5.1%. The policy measures for stabilizing financial markets in various countries have achieved remarkable results, financial market risks have been reduced, and financing functions are gradually recovering. LIBOR/OIS spreads and TED spreads reflecting the liquidity and risk of international financial markets have fallen sharply to pre-crisis levels. Increased confidence in lending by financial institutions. With the joint efforts of the international community, international financial institutions and regional financial institutions have raised large-scale funds to provide liquidity support for foreign trade enterprises. The financing difficulties that plague international trade have been alleviated to a certain extent, which is conducive to enterprises to conduct foreign trade. However, due to the lack of momentum in the recovery of the world economy, many deep-seated contradictions and problems have not yet been fundamentally resolved. The recovery of the world economy will be difficult and tortuous. The demand of the international market will not recover significantly in the short term. China's foreign trade development still faces many uncertain and unstable factors:
The world economy is recovering slowly and it is difficult for foreign demand to rebound sharply. The expansionary fiscal and monetary policies of major developed countries have limited space. The fiscal deficit of the US fiscal year reached 1.4 trillion US dollars, 3.1 times that of fiscal 2008, and the deficit rate was as high as 10%. It has reached a new high since World War II, and the fiscal deficits of Germany and France. With a rate of more than 3%, Japan’s fiscal deficit rate reached 9.4%, and national benchmark interest rates were also at historically low levels. The improvement of the employment situation generally lags behind the economic recovery. The unemployment rate of major economies may continue to deteriorate. It is difficult to see a significant improvement in the independent growth of consumption and investment. New economic growth points supported by technological progress have not yet formed. Affected by this, the world economy and international market demand will not see a sharp rebound in the short term.
The main economies have increased self-sufficiency and trade protectionism has intensified. As the world economy moves from recession to recovery, due to the different economic recovery processes in various countries, the willingness to cooperate in international policy is weakened, and coordination is more difficult. Failure to deal with it will affect the process of world economic recovery. Under domestic pressure, the major economies will further enhance their self-sufficiency and will give priority to solving domestic employment and industrial development issues, and continue to introduce various trade restrictions and protection measures, and trade protectionism will intensify. Even if the world economy recovers, international trade will not rebound sharply. The International Monetary Fund predicts that global trade in goods will only grow by 2.7% in 2010, lower than expected for world economic growth.
Competition in the international market has become more intense, and China’s exports are facing increasing pressure. After the international financial crisis, developed countries proposed to revive the manufacturing industry, and some countries also indicated that they would ease the domestic trade deficit by expanding exports. The overall competitiveness of many developing countries’ exports has risen further and may continue to compete for international markets through the depreciation of local currency. This will enable China to face direct competition from developed countries in the mid- to high-end products sector and face more challenges in developing countries in the field of traditional superior products.
International commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and business risks increase. As the world economy recovers, global resources and energy demand will pick up in 2010. In the context of ultra-low interest rates and loose monetary policy, factors such as speculation and lower US dollar exchange rates may push up commodity prices and push up Chinese companies. Import and export costs. Once the world economic recovery encounters setbacks, international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels, increasing the operational risks of Chinese companies' import and export. In addition, in the face of increasingly fierce international competition, China's export products will face greater pressure to cut prices, and the profit margin of enterprises will be further compressed, which will weaken the development momentum of Chinese enterprises.
At the same time, we must also see that there are still many favorable conditions and positive factors for maintaining China's foreign trade development:
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