According to the survey, since November, the market price of 1.4D domestic polyester staple fiber and 1.5D viscose staple fiber has been concentrated at 7200-7400 yuan/ton, 15100-15300 yuan/ton, and the difference between price and 3128 grade cotton is 8500 yuan/ton. , 800 yuan / ton or more. As a result, cotton-related enterprises, research institutions and textile authorities have raised doubts and concerns about the purchase of cotton fiber textiles to increase chemical fiber and reduce cotton.
Considering that in October and November, the Xinjiang cotton market was not supported by transportation, the peripheral large-scale futures commodities, and the cotton enterprises' centralized replenishment and high cost of lint cotton, the pick-up price of the Xinjiang cotton inland warehouse was generally between 16,000-16,500 yuan/ton. (In 2016, the market price of high-quality national storage cotton Xinjiang cotton is also approaching 16,000 yuan/ton). For most small and medium-sized spinning mills, weaving factories, fabric factories, garment factories and foreign trade companies, cotton is available. The label “high cost, low profit, and high risk†is difficult to sign in the short term.
The author judges that since October, the operation of small and medium-sized textile enterprises to reduce cotton and polyester has been carried out, and the impact on low-grade and low-quality cotton consumption will be reflected in the first half of 2017; while large textile enterprises are stable from products and stable to customers. And the perspective of spinning profit, the phenomenon of increasing the polyester will not be very prominent. For the consumption, the decline of cotton and the growth of chemical fiber require both strong attention and no need to exaggerate!
So what are the reasons for the small and medium-sized textile enterprises to adjust the procurement of raw materials and product structure? The author analyzes as follows:
First, the profitability of polyester/cotton yarn is significantly better than that of pure cotton yarn. Taking T/C45S (65/35) yarn as an example (the representative of medium and high-density polyester/cotton yarn is strong), the spinning cost is 7300*0.65+16000*0.35=10345 yuan/ton; because the polyester staple fiber spinning loss is very low, Therefore, the overall loss of spinning is 2%, the processing fee is calculated at 5,500 yuan/ton, and the factory cost is about 10345*1.02+5500≈16050 yuan/ton;
Considering the difference between the tax difference for the investment and the cost of capital for two months, the total cost of the capital cost of the two months is not higher than 17,000 yuan / ton (the yarn sales tax of some provinces has been unified); and the current price of T/C65/3545S yarn in the mainland market Concentrated at 17600-17700 yuan / ton, the yarn factory net profit of at least 600 yuan / ton or more;
Secondly, domestic C32S and cotton yarns have no cost and quality advantages compared with India, Pakistan and Vietnam. The low-end and low-count yarn markets are inevitable. Some small and medium-sized spinning mills have to be laid out in advance, compared with cotton yarn. , polyester-cotton blended, polyester-viscose blended yarns are less affected by countries such as Southeast Asia and Bangladesh;
Thirdly, the pressure on the funds faced by all small and medium-sized cotton textile mills in November has been rising. The repayment of loans, the settlement of materials and the payment of wages and bonuses at the end of the year have forced manufacturers to reduce the amount of raw materials and the amount of cash in stock as soon as possible. And the external arrears are returned, the chemical fiber raw materials such as polyester staple fiber are low in price and the fluctuation range is small, and the yarn mill mainly maintains production.
Some cotton mills in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places said that it is only a short-term behavior to reduce cotton and polyester. After all, the domestic and foreign sales of polyester-cotton yarn and polyester-viscose yarn are not large and the demand has not really warmed up. Cotton prices fell to a reasonable price, spinning C32S and the following counts of pure cotton yarn profitable and smooth sales, textile enterprises will still return to cotton yarn-based, blended yarn supplemented production pattern.
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