Huitong.com August 9th - On Wednesday (August 9th), gold bulls were on the rise, and spot gold prices soared more than 1.2% in intraday trading, refreshing the high since June 15 to $1,276.27. ounce. In response to Trump’s madness to the DPRK: waiting for a fierce roar, the North Korean side revealed the idea of ​​possibly attacking the US military base in Guam. Global risk aversion is unprecedentedly high. 
As of press time, the spot gold spot silver yen has closed at a low of 109.53 since June 16. 
The situation needs further evaluation
North Korea said on Wednesday that it is "checking" plans to use missiles to attack Guam. Earlier, US President Trump told North Korea that any threat to the United States would incur "anger and flame."
The Japanese side said the day before that North Korea may have developed nuclear warheads and continued to conduct missile and nuclear tests in spite of UN sanctions. Japan must warn of the serious threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
Mitsuo Imaizumi, chief currency strategist at Daiwa Securities, said the market has been reassured about the situation in North Korea for some time. So when North Korea threatened to hit the island with a missile, the response was great. However, few market participants believed that North Korea would really hit Guam at this node. So the impact will eventually dissipate.
Kyosuke Suzuki, head of foreign exchange at Societe Generale in Tokyo, said that the market now has time to assess the situation, and the next focus is on whether North Korea will conduct nuclear tests and what kind of response the US will make. 
Huitong.com believes that spot gold prices have been in a sideways volatility pattern for the past four months, and there has been no sign of a rise in the past. On the weekly line, the Bollinger Bands show no new signs of amplification, and the unilateral trend is still brewing. On the daily chart, the probability of the gold price challenging the previous high of $1,295 is higher, but given that there is a large amount of stop loss at the important integer mark of $1,300, it is unlikely that the price of gold will rise sharply.
★The experts from all sides are not worried that the peninsula will eventually become a battle
Although the war between the United States and the DPRK has come quite suddenly, the outside world has summarized the experience of the past few decades and combined with the geopolitical situation of the Korean peninsula, it is believed that the option of military resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue should be ruled out.
Jean Lee, former president of the Associated Press in Pyongyang, will play with the cat and mouse game.
Jean Lee, a researcher at the Wilson Center and former president of the Associated Press in Pyongyang, pointed out that all countries in the region, including North Korea, do not want to have another war, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will continue to present his current political goals. The game continues until the United States recognizes North Korea as a nuclear power.
To some extent, Trump threatened the North Korean authorities against the DPRK. Kim Jong-un hopes that his people are convinced that the United States continues to threaten North Korea’s basic right to life. Nowadays, all the Korean nationals will become more united in the increasingly dignified atmosphere of foreign terrorism. The precious resources of North Korea will be more securely used for the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile projects.
Lee admits that what is worrying now is that there is a misjudgment of the situation on either side, or a major catastrophic accident caused by the North Korean nuclear test, causing other parties to be forced to take military action. The bombardment of the Yanping Island in 2010 has been freshly remembered, and the incident has also caused several Korean civilians to die. In addition, if North Korea tests ballistic missile warheads into Japan's territorial waters, Japan may also make a military response to this.
Andrei Lankov, Professor of Yonsei University, South Korea: North Korea regards global strike capability as a means of self-protection
Andrei Lankov, a professor at Yonsei University in South Korea, said that the outside world has long been accustomed to the rhetoric of the North Korean media, but Trump’s gunpowder rhetoric is quite surprising. Lankov expects: "Trump may dispatch one or two aircraft carriers to cruise the waters off the Korean peninsula." 
In the past few decades, the pressure on the US military against the DPRK has always been a combination of rhetoric and tactics; and the most extreme performance of North Korea’s external display is nothing more than screaming every few years that "Beware of Seoul becoming a sea of ​​fire."
Lankov also predicted that once North Korea completes nuclear force development work and can be used to combat the deployment of nuclear missiles in the United States, the DPRK may be ready to negotiate on how to freeze nuclear and missile projects. The US should accept this option.
Jiyoung Song, Senior Lecturer of North Korean Studies at the University of Melbourne: The final abandonment of the nuclear is still expected
Jiyoung Song, a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne on North Korea, believes that the United States and the DPRK will have mutual resounding rhetoric in the near future, but Washington will eventually start negotiations on Pyongyang, even if it is secretly conducted during negotiations. In the meantime, Kim Jong-un will continue his nuclear and missile development.
Song stressed that military means cannot ultimately solve all problems related to North Korea. North Korea hopes that the United States will recognize it as a legitimate nuclear-armed country and normalize relations with the United States. North Korea’s development of nuclear and missile projects is part of the consideration for maintaining the survival of its regime. All the cards that Pyongyang can play have been spread on the table. They have repeatedly called for negotiations and finally abolished the armistice agreement signed in 1953 and signed a peace treaty.
Song still has expectations for the Kim family regime to finally give up nuclear weapons. Because neither Russia nor China wants to have a nuclear-weapon state in their own periphery, it will eventually lead to a resurgence of war on the Korean peninsula. Kim Jong-un has no friends at all in international relations. He has extremely dangerous weapons in his hands that have made all other countries feel threatened.
Robert Kelly, Associate Professor, Busan National University: Trump may be interested in Pei Gong
Robert Kelly, an associate professor at Busan National University, believes that people can interpret Trump's words from two different perspectives.
Let's look at the problem. If you are a supporter of Trump, Trump may want to make himself more unpredictable. His true intentions are to put pressure on those big powers that really have an influence on North Korea and release to them the signal that "the US strategic endurance has ended."
With a little pessimistic point of view, it is impossible for North Korea to unilaterally launch attacks on US military bases or even the United States in the absence of provocation. If this is done, the consequences will undoubtedly lead to full-scale retaliation from the United States.
North Korea is not stupid. Nuclear weapons are only used for defense. They are not trying to provoke others to increase their enthusiasm. North Korea’s top leader fears that he will eventually fall into the same fate as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Qaddafi. Nuclear weapons are seen by the authorities as the best choice to avoid this outcome. North Korea can now be said to be riding a tiger, and it’s hard to retreat.
John Delury, an expert on North Korea at Yonsei University: South Korea does not seem to care
John Delury, a North Korean expert at Yonsei University, believes that any intimidating rhetoric in the diplomatic field is irrational and often proves to be ineffective. Therefore, if there is a substantial advancement in the relevant issues, the parties still need to sit down and talk.
Delury said that the North Korean war of diplomatic slogans has always been very good, but the possibility of a military conflict does not exist. The South Korean side has not responded strongly to this. The whole South Korea has not shown enough attention to this US-DPRK war. South Korea The performance of the government is calm.
Andrew O'Neil, Missile Expert at Griffith University: Big Powers Are in Strategic Dilemma
Griffith University missile expert Andrew O'Neil pointed out that if North Korea puts nuclear warheads on missiles for testing, then this move is undoubtedly highly provocative. It will not only be the United States and its allies, but also China will feel like a thorn in the back. The party will further pressure the pressure on the DPRK.
The current predicament is that the Security Council’s multiple rounds of sanctions against the DPRK have not achieved satisfactory results, but they are worried that the military conflict in Northeast Asia may expand, and the outside world is generally arrogant about military strikes against North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction. However, if a big country continues to be helpless in the face of North Korea’s unscrupulous behavior, its own credit will be greatly reduced. How to maintain its prestige in international relations will be a new problem.
Judging from the diplomatic contest of this round, both Kim Jong-un and Trump seem to be overconfident about their ability to control the situation and deal with the crisis.
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