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Huitong.com July 12th - On Monday (July 11th), during the European trading session, the dollar continued to rise steadily by the expected economic stimulus plan in Japan, which rose more than 2%. The pound was affected by the Bank of England’s interest rate hike expectations this week and the political situation in the UK (the UK or the new prime minister). After a shock in the European trading session, the pound soared by 150 points in a short-term, recovering the intraday decline and also rising. . The US dollar index was also boosted by the expectations of the Japanese economic stimulus plan, which hit a four-month high of 96.78. The gold futures price continued to fall during the European trading session and continued to fall during the Asian session. Although it has stabilized, it has basically erased the intraday gains. European stock markets rose sharply across the board, and the UK's FTSE 100 index rose to an 11-month high. The three major US stock indexes opened higher and higher, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index hit another record high. The international crude oil futures price rebounded to a short-term decline of US$44.53/barrel in the early trading hours of European trading hours. After the intraday trading, it recovered its intraday gains and recorded a rise, and it was again under pressure.
★[List of major market prices]
In the foreign exchange market: During the European trading hours, the expectation of the implementation of the economic stimulus plan by Japan was boosted. The USD/JPY continued its steady rise in the Asian trading session and rose to a 5-day high, rising more than 2.10%. It is now reported at 102.65. Low 100.56. Also expected by the Japanese economic stimulus plan is the US dollar index. The US dollar index once recorded a four-month high in European trading hours. The highest point in the day was 96.78, which is now at 96.63, or 0.38%, which is a further upward trend. Sterling against the US dollar was affected by the Bank of England’s monetary policy market expectations during the week and the political situation in the UK. It plunged to a low of 96.27 during the initial trading hours of the European trading session and soared more than 150 points in a short-term, recovering the intraday decline and recording a rise. Negotiated against the US dollar at the intraday high, is now reported at 1.2992, an increase of 0.26%, an amplitude of 1.30%. However, the euro rebounded weakly against the US dollar as the market expects the European Central Bank to be more likely to loosen further during the week. The euro was at a low of 1.1017 against the dollar, with a high of 1.1076, and is now at 1.1037, a drop of 0.18%. The US dollar continued to rise against the Canadian dollar during the European trading session, and the intraday session soared. Although the oil price rebounded from the low level in the day, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar was accelerated by the US dollar index. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar is now at 1.3125, an increase of 0.64, and is currently trading at a high intraday high.
Crude oil: International crude oil prices rebounded after a short-term decline in the early European trading session. The intraday oil price also recorded a rise in the recovery day. US oil and oil have recently started to fall, and the market's enthusiasm for bearish oil prices has warmed up. Therefore, in the short term, weak fundamentals are expected to continue to pressure oil prices along with market pessimism. US WTI crude oil futures price is now reported at 44.90 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 1.12%, the daily low of 44.53 US dollars / barrel, the day high of 45.77 US dollars / barrel. Brent crude oil futures price is now reported at 46.27 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 1.07%, the daily low of 45.91 US dollars / barrel, the day high of 47.10 US dollars / barrel.
Precious metals: During the European trading hours, the decline in gold futures prices slowed down compared to Asian trading hours, stabilized after the bottom of the night, and thus oscillated sideways. In the short term, the Fed’s unmoved market is expected to continue to provide support for gold prices. It is expected that despite the extremely strong non-agricultural use in the United States in June, it can only prove that the US labor market has not continued to deteriorate. However, it is far from enough for the Fed to raise interest rates because the Brexit or the Fed’s current primary problem is The market uncertainty caused by Europe will limit the Fed’s rate hike in the short term. The COMEX gold futures price is now at $1,360.30 per ounce, the intraday low of $1,352.80 per ounce, and the current price is basically flat. The price of COMEX silver futures is now at $20.45 per ounce, an increase of 1.74%, the intraday low of $20.17 per ounce, and the intraday high of 20.76.
In terms of the stock market: A-share midday trading continued to shrink from the high level in the day, and the volume of trading in the late session was enlarged. However, as a whole, the current volume could not be continuously enlarged. The operating volume of the stock market led by the stock funds was slower, and the growth stocks fell back. Sub-new stocks fell sharply, indicating that the follow-up rally in this round of the sector is weak, and the 3000-point integer mark pressure needs to be continuously digested. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.23% on Monday, up 6.83 points to 2994.92 points. Shenzhen Composite Index closed down 0.16% on Monday, down 16.98 points to 10594.82 points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock indexes closed up 0.35% on Monday, up 11.05 points. At 3203.33 points, the GEM index closed down 0.91% on Monday, down 20.41 points to 221.585 points. The US stock market opened on Monday (July 11), with the three major stock indexes opening higher and the S&P 500 hitting a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 43.35 points, or 0.24%, to 18190.09 points. The S&P 500 index rose 4.75 points, or 0.22%, to 2134.65 points. The Nasdaq index opened 20.97 points, or 0.42%, to 4977.72. point. European stock markets rose sharply across the board, with the UK's FTSE 100 index rising to an 11-month high. European pan-European 300 index closed up 1.54% on Monday; UK FTSE 100 index closed up 1.4% on Monday; Germany DAX index closed up 2.1% on Monday; France CA C40 index closed up 1.8% on Monday; Spain IBEX index closed up 1.8% on Monday .
★List of main economic data
1. According to data released by the Federal Reserve, the labor market condition index fell by 1.9 index points in June; 3.6 index points fell in May; the index is based on 19 labor market indicators, of which unemployment rate and private sector employment status are more weighted. Includes job vacancies and labor mobility surveys (JOLTS) and salary indicators. The indicator was released on Monday after the release of the non-agricultural employment report.
※ Bank of England monetary policy expectations
1. BNP Paribas pointed out that the Bank of England will start a loose monetary policy cycle, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets on Thursday, and does not rule out further interest rate cuts in the future. Steven? Analysts such as Saywell wrote in a customer report that after the pound stabilized against the dollar at around 1.3000, the Bank of England cut interest rates, coupled with prospects for foreign direct investment or reduction, could make the pound continue to fall. BNP Paribas' mid-term model predicts that the pound will look at 1.3500 against the dollar, compared with an estimated 1.5000 before the Brexit referendum.
2, well-known financial website Forexlive currency analyst Ryan? Littlestone: The Bank of England is expected to remain inactive this week. The market generally expects the Bank of England to loosen and short the pound this week, and I insist on doing more pounds; first, Carney has made it clear that the committee will discuss tools that can be used further in the terms of reference in August; second, before the meeting this week. Data on the economic situation after the referendum are not available for reference; therefore, the Bank of England is expected to remain inactive this week, but the central bank may reveal clues as to which tools to use next.
※ European Central Bank monetary policy expectations
1. Reuters survey: 18 of the 19 traders surveyed believe that the European Central Bank will not relax its policy at the July 21 monetary policy meeting.
※ Crude oil market:
1. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): As of the week of July 5, the net long position of Brent crude speculators decreased by 14,787 contracts to 312,270 contracts.
2. Nigerian Oil and Gas Senior Employees Association (Pengassan): The strike of Nigerian oil workers is still going on. According to Bloomberg: Nigerian oil union leaders will hold talks with government officials today.
3. According to Bloomberg: Iraq will load 64.415 million barrels of Basra light oil and 22 million barrels of heavy oil in August.
4. According to Reuters: Iraq plans to reduce the export of Basra crude oil in August to 2.79 million barrels per day, and the export volume in July is expected to be 2.99 million barrels per day.
5. According to Bloomberg: The Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) exported 15 million barrels of crude oil in June and 567,068 barrels per day of crude oil.
6, Sweden Nordic Bank: US shale oil or oil prices for a long time under pressure. As oil prices pick up, US shale oil producers are expected to yield 8% in the next five years, prompting US oil producers to increase their investment in drilling; the number of wells has increased in five weeks in the past six weeks; The increase in oil wells will increase US crude oil production by 250,000 barrels per day next year; and unless crude oil production in non-OPEC and non-US oil producing countries suddenly drops sharply, oil prices will be under pressure for a longer period of time.
7. Source: Nigeria's domestic cross-Niger oil pipeline was closed on Monday. The pipeline is mainly used to export Bonny light crude oil.
※inside China:
1. Informed sources said that the Tangshan Municipal Government issued a document on the 11th that from July 12 to July 31, the whole city used steel rolling mills, forgings and other enterprises, all of which were shut down to improve the ambient air. quality. The city's iron and steel enterprises in the sintering section to reduce emissions of pollutants by 50%; the city's coking enterprises to extend coal loading and coking time to 36 hours; the city's open-pit mines will be suspended; all types of construction sites in the city will be shut down. On the basis of the implementation of the above measures, from July 25 to July 31, all coking enterprises in the city stopped loading coal and coke, and the sintering machine of the city's steel enterprises stopped production.
2. China strengthened the management of corporate bond market, revised and released new regulations on discount rate, highlighting the government's concerns about increasing financial risks in the context of increased bond defaults; China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. issued an announcement on its website last Friday. The overall reduction of the discount factor value of the credit bonds used for pledge; according to the announcement, the discount rate of the AA-rated pledged bonds is 0.50, but the previous discount rate is not mentioned in the announcement; according to Huachuang Securities The original discount rate for such pledged bonds was 0.70, which was the largest among all categories of pledged bonds.
3. Securities Market Red Weekly quoted According to the Hong Kong News Agency, the market rumored that the first major task of the new listing committee of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was to study and raise the threshold for listing, and consulted the industry on this; at the same time, the CSRC also studied professional investors. The system conducts a new round of consultation. The consultation included six measures including plans to extend the lock-up period for major shareholders, improve profitability requirements, improve the listing and sales mechanism, and raise the threshold for professional investors.
4. Citi: It is expected that “Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect†is expected to announce details in the third quarter of this year and officially launch in the fourth quarter.
5. Xintai Electric will resume trading on July 12, 2016. After that, the company's stock is expected to be suspended from trading on August 23, and the decision to suspend the stock listing will be made within 15 trading days after the company's stock is suspended. .
※United States:
1. Federal Reserve George: US GDP growth in the first quarter is relatively weak; the second quarter has improved; the US economy has proven to be resilience in the past few years; after the non-agricultural report in May, it is expected to report performance in June. The gradual rate hike will help the Fed achieve its goal; it did not disagree at the FOMC meeting in June. The Brexit referendum was one of the factors considered at the time; the Brexit issue is expected to cause long-term policy decisions. Impact; the Fed has largely achieved its dual mission.
※European region:
1. Cameron: Britain will welcome a new prime minister before Wednesday night. Teresa May will receive my support.
2. British Prime Minister David Cameron: We should focus on trade and investment. Only 5% of what we do contribute to economic growth; the UK will solve financial uncertainty; the UK faces enormous productivity challenges; Britain The fundamental challenges of productivity must be addressed and internal investment promoted; infrastructure projects must be prioritized.
3. British Interior Minister Theresa May: Will not try to stay in the EU, there will be no second referendum; Britain needs deep economic reforms; economic reforms are needed to make more people prosper, not for big companies Responsible behavior requires a tough attitude; it will seek energy policies that emphasize reliability and cost; it will help UK companies remain competitive; it will combat tax evasion by individuals and businesses, and resist foreign investors’ acquisitions aimed at reducing taxes; The company’s shareholders vote to determine the executive’s compensation is binding.
4. According to Bloomberg: Teresa May became the leader of the British Conservative Party and the only candidate for the British Prime Minister.
5. The Russian Central Bank: It is expected that there will be excess liquidity in Russia from the beginning of 2017.
※Other areas:
1. According to the DPRK Central Committee: North Korea said it had informed the United States that it would cut off the only diplomatic channel with the United States; North Korea said it would treat all US-related matters in wartime law, including Americans detained in North Korea.
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