The new year's closing price increases, and Jiangsu's intention to plant cotton is positive.

With the changes of time and seasons, the cotton production in Jiangsu Province in 2011 was basically satisfactory. Only the sales of lint and some cotton by-products were processed. In 2012, the cotton production was at the beginning of preparation and a new round of production and sales was It will gradually start from the beginning of the month.

First, the total assessment of Jiangsu's cotton production in 2011.

In 2011, the cotton planting area in the province was about 3.8 million mu and the actual collection area was about 3.6 million mu. Because of the different disasters during the birth period, the province’s cotton production status is not balanced. Yancheng City, which has a large reduction in output, is actually the lowest yield and total output in the city. It is even lower than reported at the end of last year. In some areas, only 100 jin of lint is produced. The seed cotton is no more than three hundred pounds. By the end of February, cotton picking in the whole province was over. The province produced a total of 75 kilograms, and the total production was nearly 6 million. Its unit production and production levels were the lowest in nearly four years. By the end of February, 90% of the cotton resources are expected to enter the acquisition channel. At the end of February, the purchase price of seed cotton in Dafeng and Sheyang, etc., was at 8 yuan per kilogram, which is equivalent to the beginning of the opening balance and 0.20-0.40 yuan lower than the annual high price point. In 2011, the local seed cotton was only 7.60-7.80 yuan a kilogram before the Spring Festival. The cotton price rose slightly after the Spring Festival, but it seems to have fallen slightly in the near future, but the acquisitions on the market have been sporadic.

Second, the 2012 cotton production intention in Jiangsu.

Numerous surveys and media reports on Jiangsu's cotton will continue to decline in 2012, so far, various phenomena still support this statement. The most important thing is that the vast majority of cotton fields in northern Jiangsu Province this year have been “cold and cold” and the weather has extended to “convulsions”. Farmers buy seeds, turn fields, dig hoeing, fertilize nursery beds, and so on. In addition, the poor cotton planting efficiency, the ever-changing market, unbalanced input-output ratio, high production and sales risks, and farmers going out to work and doing business all reduce the farmers' confidence in planting cotton and cotton planting area. However, objectively analyzing the trend of cotton production, there are still many uncertainties that will affect the area of ​​cotton. For example, the recently introduced cotton storage and storage price is 20,400 yuan per ton, 600 yuan more than in 2011. This year's addition of an additional 600 yuan per ton on the basis of last year's unlimited collection and storage should be interpreted as a positive signal. From the understanding of the circumstances, many farmers have entered the chosen situation after the new policy of the State Reserve Cotton was promulgated, because of the new cotton cultivation in the Mainland. It did not start, and it was decided to plant and not plant cotton for three to four weeks because in the third and fourth month, the cotton aphid in the mainland can be mined in one month, and the supply of production data such as seeds is guaranteed. Therefore, cotton The top and bottom of production is mainly the issue of reversal of the people's minds under the control of policies, prices, markets, environments, and risks.

Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the area of ​​cotton planted in Jiangsu this year will be a necessary reduction, but the specific rate will certainly not be finalized. Optimistic analysis of the province's 2012 cotton planting area of ​​300-320 million mu, mainly to reduce the area in Yancheng, Nantong, the two main producing areas, because the two cities "two" construction faster, the pace of agricultural restructuring, The peasants' income has been markedly effective. Starting from reality, the poor cotton-planting efficiency will not be able to retain people's confidence, and the confidence will not be returned. It is therefore natural to cut cotton here.