· On Tuesday, gold futures silver futures prices fell 0.18% to $17.105 per ounce. Earlier in the day, the bond market's selling tide spread to global stock markets, which provided support for gold; but as investors adjusted their positions before the Trump State of the Union speech and the Fed's interest rate decision, the gold price regained its decline and fell back to Below the $1,340 mark. Analysts said a memo on the "TongRumen" investigation may also have caused the market to be "stunned." The US House Intelligence Committee tried to open a memo written by the Republican Party. Some analysts said that the memo may lead to the end of the "TongRumen" investigation.
· International oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, as there are more signs that US crude oil production is rising, and global stock markets and bond market declines have reversed market risk appetite, and investors are also selling large commodities. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.34% to $63.99 per barrel; Brent crude futures closed down 1.52% to $68.11 per barrel. The API report released this morning showed that the US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.229 million barrels. After the data was released, the oil price was further suppressed.
· The US dollar retreated earlier in the European market yesterday and then fell, as US Treasury yields fell from recent highs, and the euro zone's strong GDP data pushed the euro higher. However, after the euro retreated some of the gains, the dollar recovered some of its lost ground and fell 0.13% in the day. The Eurozone's GDP growth rate in 2017 recorded 2.5%, the largest increase in a decade, pushing the euro to break above the 1.24 mark. Overnight, Bank of England Governor Carney said that he was turning his attention back to curbing inflation, boosting interest rate hike expectations, and the pound rose 0.48% in the day.
Precious metals market: global stock market plunged once to boost risk aversion. Gold is consolidating before heavy events
On Tuesday (January 30), investors waited for US President Trump’s State of the Union address speech and the Fed’s interest rate decision. The dollar narrowed its decline and gold fell from rising to falling. At the close, the COMEX gold futures contract fell 0.09% to $1337.5 per ounce; the silver futures contract price fell 0.18% to $17.105 per ounce.
Analysts said that earlier in the day, the bond market selling tide spread to global stock markets, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell nearly 1%, the biggest one-day drop in two and a half months; the three major US stock indexes opened collectively, the intraday Dow It once fell more than 400 points, the biggest drop in 8 months; the "panic index" VIX rose 15 and hit a high of more than 5 months. This degree provided support for gold, and the spot gold in the US market rose to a maximum of 1348.83 US dollars / ounce. However, as the US dollar recovered some of its lost ground, the gold price regained its decline and fell back below the $1,340 mark.
In addition, the US economic data released overnight was better than expected and also put pressure on gold. In January, the US S&P/CS10 major cities did not adjust the house price index to a monthly rate of 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%. The US Consumer Council's consumer confidence index for January was 125.4, which was also better than the expected 123.1.
Reuters quoted RJO Futures senior commodity strategist Josh Graves as saying that the price of gold fell from the high point because investors adjusted their position before Trump’s State of the Union speech at 10:00 Beijing time on Wednesday; It also prepares for the Fed to use hawkish wording, as there are signs that the US economy is accelerating. In addition, investors are still waiting for the non-agricultural “outpost†in the evening – the announcement of the US ADP employment report in January.
The tension between the United States and Russia in the day has given the market a certain risk aversion. According to the People’s Daily reported on Tuesday, the US Treasury Department issued a list of Russian “oligarch politicians†related to Russian President Vladimir Putin, involving 114 senior political figures and 96 oligarchy. A spokesman for the Russian Kremlin warned that the United States has labeled the "enemy" for everyone in the report.
It is worth noting that analyst Graves said that a memo on the "TongRumen" investigation may also cause the market to be "stunned." The Republican-led US House Intelligence Committee cites an ambiguous rule on Monday to try to disclose a secret memo written by the Republican Party. The memo reveals the abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) by the Obama administration, the FBI, the Justice Department, and the Hillary campaign team, including the surveillance of the Trump team during the presidential election. Some of the members who have seen the contents of the memorandum said that the matter described the disturbing behavior of the previous government. More reporters said that this may lead to the end of Muller's step down and "TongRumen" investigation.
Energy market: risk sentiment reversal dragged oil market oil prices down more than 2% in the day. API crude oil inventories increased and then worried
International oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, as there are more signs that US crude oil production is rising, and global stock markets and bond market declines have reversed the market's risk appetite, and investors are also selling large commodities. The US main contract price of WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.34% to 63.99 US dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices fell 1.52% to 68.11 US dollars / barrel.
US stocks closed lower on the second day yesterday. The oil market is watching the weak state of the US stock market, which will inevitably make the crude oil traders nervous. Analysts say that when the stock market pulls back, the market will start to worry about whether the argument for strong economic growth can stand up. In addition, as the negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar reached the strongest in a month, the US dollar recently pushed up the oil price to a three-year high. Currently, a large number of profitable stocks have been accumulated, and more and more investors have chosen to win. Benefits.
In terms of fundamentals, broker PVM Oil Associates said that US crude oil production is likely to be “very close†to the symbolic 10 million barrels per day this week. Earlier this month, the IEA said it expects US production to surpass Saudi Arabia in 2018, surpassing 10 million barrels per day, the highest since 1970. Research firm Julius Baer Research said in a report released on Tuesday that the tightening trend in the oil market is expected to slow down or even reverse, as US shale oil, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deep-sea drilling platforms are expected to exceed global demand growth.
In addition, the American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report released on Wednesday morning showed that the US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.229 million barrels in the week of January 26, and the previous value increased by 475.5 barrels, which is expected to increase by 100,000 barrels. In addition, when Zhoukuxin crude oil inventories decreased by 2.383 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 4.906 million barrels, but gasoline inventories increased by 2.692 million barrels. After the data was released, the US and the two oils fell short-term.
Foreign exchange market: the euro retreated, the dollar recovered, and some of the lost landed Carney testimony for the pound injected into the "cardiotonic agent"
The US dollar retreated earlier in the European market yesterday and then fell, as US Treasury yields fell from recent highs, and the euro zone's strong GDP data pushed the euro higher. However, in the US market, the US dollar recovered some of its losses as the euro retreated part of the gains, falling 0.13% to 89.223.
Reuters said that after a six-week losing streak, the dollar is expected to fall 3.4% this month, or the largest monthly decline since March 2016. On Monday, US bond yields broke the key level of 2.7% and pushed the dollar higher. However, Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said investors are waiting for the rally to end and increase the dollar's short position. The fundamentals that have affected the dollar over the past 24 hours have not changed.
The euro rose 0.11% on Tuesday to 1.2394. The euro zone's fourth-quarter GDP annual rate announced yesterday afternoon was 2.7%, in line with expectations; last year the region's GDP grew by 2.5%, the largest increase in a decade. After the data was released, the euro broke the 1.24 mark against the dollar. The European Central Bank’s management committee said overnight that price stability in the euro zone is not a risk, and it is reasonable to end QE after September.
The pound once fell below the 1.40 mark yesterday. For the first time in a week, due to a leaked government document, whether or not the EU is completely separated from the EU, its economy will be adversely affected on a large scale, possibly The economic growth rate will slow down by more than 8% in the next 15 years. But then, as the dollar weakened, the pound returned to the top of the mark, rising 0.48% to 1.4139. Overnight, Bank of England Governor Carney said at the hearing that the central bank is turning its attention back to curbing inflation, which underscores investors’ expectations that the central bank will restrain monetary policy faster than expected, and that the pound has been raised. Vibration.
Editor:
Disclaimer: This article was written by the author of Sohu. In addition to the official account of Sohu, the opinion only represents the author and does not represent Sohu’s position.
(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)
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